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id="i3pzba1yccn" class="news_title">钢铁行业正在由高利润向合理利润转å?</div> <div id="i3pzba1yccn" class="news_nform"> 【字体选择ï¼?a class="black" href="javascript:fontZoom(16)">å¤?/a> <a class="black" href="javascript:fontZoom(14)"> ä¸?/a> <a class="black" href="javascript:fontZoom(12)">å°?/a>ã€?<font class="f12">2019/9/16 11:01:25</font>) </div> <div id="i3pzba1yccn" class="news_key"> 关键词:钢材 钢铁 钢材ç½?钢铁ç½?湖南钢材 湖南钢铁</div> <div id="i3pzba1yccn" class="news_img"><a ><img src="http://bhwzly.com/flashindex/tmxc735.jpg" width="735" height="60" border="0"></a></div> <div class="news_content" id="fontzoom"><P> <!-- 供应商、求购商 开å§?--> <!-- 市场关注 --> <!-- 供应商、求购商 结束 --> <p>2019年以来,钢铁行业下行趋势明显。数据显示,8æœ?9日â€?æœ?3日,钢材指数周五收在3960å…?吨,周环比持平。现货交易平台监测的数据显示,截è‡?æœ?3日,全国61个主要市åœ?5mm规格三级螺纹钢平均价格为3951å…?吨,周环比下è·?5å…?吨ã€?/p><p>整个8月,全国20个城å¸?大类品种钢材社会库存合计环比7月增加较多,其中螺纹钢、热轧卷板增幅较大ã€?月库存总量1402万吨,环比增åŠ?31万吨,上å?0.3%;其中钢材市场库存总量1315万吨,环比增åŠ?30万吨,上å?1.0%,港口库å­?7万吨,环比增åŠ?万吨,上å?.0%ã€?/p><p>2018年是钢铁企业的“春天”,钢材价格跃上高点,公司业绩大多很漂亮。不过今年上半年受制于成本端的挤压,钢企业绩普遍下挫ï¼?æœ?2日晚,多只钢铁股公布了半年报,净利同比下滑在40%左右。原材料价格上升、下游需求疲软,再加上环保压力影响,钢铁企业上半年的日子不好过ã€?/p><p>钢企正向黄金时代挥手告别的观点应如何看待?钢价下行的因素主要有哪些?通过限产来保价的做法是否持续?工业互联网+能够给钢铁行业带来什么样的变化?针对这些问题,中国经济时报采访了国家发展和改革委员会价格监测中心刘婕ã€?/p><p><strong>高利润不可能一直持续下åŽ?/strong></p><p>中国经济时报:中国钢铁工业协会数据显示,进入8月,钢材价格有一定程度下跌。同期,国内钢材总库存已经连续上æ¶?周。有观点认为钢企正向黄金时代挥手告别,对此你如何看?</p><p>刘婕:应该看到,2016年以来,钢铁行业整体是呈现稳步向好发展态势。主要表现在以下几个方面ã€?/p><p>第一,钢材价格方面。钢材价格从2016年开始上涨,2017年是快速上涨,2018年是稳步上涨。根据国家发展和改革委员会价格监测中心的数据显示ï¼?016年全国主要钢材批发市场均价为2901å…?吨,2017年是4145å…?吨,2018年是4531å…?吨,分别比上一年上涨了5.2%ã€?2.9%ã€?.3%,值得关注的是ï¼?018年价格水平是2013年以来的最高水平ã€?/p><p>第二,行业盈利也实现了大幅上涨。中钢协发布的数据显示,2015年,其会员企业亏损面过半,è€?017年则实现利润1773亿元ï¼?018年实现盈利达2862.7亿元,企业效益实现了显著好转ã€?/p><p>第三,行业去杠杆取得了一定成效。根据中钢协数据ï¼?018年,中钢协会员企业资产负债率ä¸?5%左右,较2016年下降了çº?个百分点。此外,化解过剩产能和清理地条钢方面也取得了实打实的效果,钢铁行业供需也趋于合理ã€?/p><p>因此,从以上来看,近几年说是钢铁行业的黄金时代是有一定道理的。但ä»?018å¹?1月以后,钢材价格开始下跌,价格监测中心的数据显示,2019年上半年,钢材的平均价格ä¸?365å…?吨,è¾?018年同期下降了95å…?吨。同时,受原材料成本上涨影响ï¼?019年上半年,钢铁行业利润有所下滑。中钢协数据显示ï¼?019年上半年,会员企业实现利润总额ä¸?065亿元,同比下é™?0.5%ã€?/p><p>在我看来,以前的高利润是不可能一直持续下去的,但是也不能够出çŽ?015年那样的大面积亏损,整体上看,钢铁行业利润会有所压缩,将回归到正常合理的利润。因此,与其说是钢铁行业挥别黄金时代,不如说是钢铁行业正在由高利润向合理利润进行转变ã€?/p><p><strong>要巩固市场现有成æž?/strong></p><p>中国经济时报:你认为,目前钢价下行、产能过剩的因素主要有哪些?</p><p>刘婕:在我看来,当前钢材价格下跌是符合整个钢材市场淡季特征的ã€?ã€?月份受高温、降雨影响,下游需求偏弱,钢材库存有所累积、价格下跌是符合市场预期的。而在供给侧结构性改革红利已经趋于弱化、环保限产不搞“一刀切”,下游市场包括汽车、房地产、造船等需求相对偏弱因素作用下ï¼?019年钢材价格较去年重心下移是比较确定的ã€?/p><p>2019å¹?-6月,全国粗钢产量æ˜?.92亿吨,同比增é•?.9%,也引发了市场对产能再次过剩的担忧。从巩固市场成果角度来看,要做到以下三点ã€?/p><p>首先,要巩固去产能成果,全面淘汰落后产能、防止落后产能死灰复燃。其次,要积极稳步推进行业兼并重组,鼓励优秀企业在重组过程中优化布局,从而推动行业高质量发展。再次,要加强审查,对于非法产能要进行严格打击,从而有效维护市场秩序ã€?/p><p>限产保价的做法是短期行为,并不能够持ç»?/p><p>中国经济时报:由于近期钢材市场价格的普遍跌落,钢铁企业实现利润水平急剧萎缩,有些企业和钢材品种甚至出现亏损,有的钢企通过限产来保价,对钢企通过限产来保价的做法你如何看待?这种做法能不能起作用ï¼?/p><p>刘婕:目前钢材库存确实已有所减少,但需求还未有明显的提振,此外钢材整体库存仍较同期较高,供给上仍有压力。但铁矿石价格有所下降,钢企利润是有所修复的,利润的修复或会伴随着复产。钢企通过限产来保价的做法是短期行为,并不能够持续ã€?/p><p><strong>工业互联网可以促进钢铁行业高质量发展</strong></p><p>»ÊÐù²ÊƱƽ̨中国经济时报ï¼?æœ?4日,2019中国(杭州)工业互联网大会开幕,在你看来,工业互联网能够给钢铁行业带来什么样的变化?</p><p>刘婕ï¼?017å¹?1月,国务院发布了《关于深化“互联网+先进制造业”发展工业互联网的指导意见》。工业互联网是连接工业全系统、全产业链、全价值链,支撑工业智能化发展的关键基础设施,是新一代信息技术与制造业深度融合所形成的新兴业态与应用模式,是互联网从消费领域向生产领域、从虚拟经济向实体经济拓展的核心载体ã€?/p><p>当前,全球工业互联网正处在格局未定的关键期和规模化扩张的窗口期,发展工业互联网已经成为主要国家抢占全球产业竞争新制高点、重塑工业体系的共同选择。大力发展工业互联网,对推动互联网和实体经济深度融合,促进大众创业、万众创新和一二三产业、大中小企业融通发展,建设制造强国、网络强国都具有重大而深远的意义ã€?/p><p>在我看来,推动工业互联网和钢铁行业深度融合,可以促进整个钢铁行业高质量发展,表现在以下四个方面ã€?/p><p>第一,工业互联网和钢铁行业深度融合,可以高度整合资源,实现全要素、全产业链全面链接,从而产生规模效应和协同效应ã€?/p><p>第二,工业互联网和钢铁行业深度融合,可以利用相关软件分析技术,充分释放钢铁行业潜力,从而提高生产效率ã€?/p><p>第三,工业互联网和钢铁行业深度融合,可以有效提升钢铁行业智能化水平,从而满足个性化、多元化需求,在一定程度上提高钢铁行业有效供给ã€?/p><p>第四,工业互联网和钢铁行业深度融合,可以有利于相关部门和机构更全面地掌握钢铁行业的情况,从而为政府制定相关政策和企业作决策提供更加准确的依据和参考ã€?/p> 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