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id="i3pzba1yccn" class="news_title">国庆节后中国钢材价格或有下跌风险 </div> <div id="i3pzba1yccn" class="news_nform"> 【字体选择ï¼?a class="black" href="javascript:fontZoom(16)">å¤?/a> <a class="black" href="javascript:fontZoom(14)"> ä¸?/a> <a class="black" href="javascript:fontZoom(12)">å°?/a>ã€?<font class="f12">2019/9/18 14:00:03</font>) </div> <div id="i3pzba1yccn" class="news_key"> 关键词:钢材 钢铁 钢材ç½?钢铁ç½?湖南钢材 湖南钢铁</div> <div id="i3pzba1yccn" class="news_img"><a ><img src="http://bhwzly.com/flashindex/tmxc735.jpg" width="735" height="60" border="0"></a></div> <div class="news_content" id="fontzoom"><P> <!-- 供应商、求购商 开å§?--> <!-- 市场关注 --> <!-- 供应商、求购商 结束 --> <p>2019年全球经济增速加速下滑,国际金融环境愈加复杂,经济衰退信号频发。从9æœ?6日国家统计局公布çš?月份宏观产经数据来看,在宏观经济下行的背景下,我国国民经济仍然延续了总体平稳、稳中有进的发展态势。其中,钢铁行业相关的数据表现为:</p><p><strong>一、供应端数据ï¼?/strong><strong>8月份钢铁产量再创高位ï¼?/strong><strong>规模以上工业企业粗钢、生铁、钢æ?/strong><strong>生产增é€?/strong><strong>有反弹ã€?/strong></p><p>1、产量情况:据国家统计局数据显示ï¼?019å¹?月我国粗钢日均产é‡?81.5万吨,同比增é•?.3%,较7月上å?.3个百分点ï¼?-8月粗钢产é‡?6487万吨,同比增é•?.1%ã€?-8月生铁产é‡?4471万吨,同比增é•?.9%ã€?/p><p>8月份钢材日均产量总量343.19万吨,同比增é•?.8%,较七月份增é•?.2个百分点ï¼?-8月钢材总产量为69776万吨,同比增é•?1.0%ã€?/p><p>可知8月份我国生铁、粗钢和钢材产量依然呈现高速增长,且环比、同比均呈增长态势,预期中的部分钢厂由于亏损,主动停产检修带来的钢材产量减量并不明显ã€?/p><p><strong>二、需求端数据ï¼?/strong><strong>楼市稳中有降</strong><strong>ï¼?/strong><strong>多项指标增速连续回è?/strong><strong>;规模以上工业增加值连ç»?/strong><strong>2月下滑;钢材出口数据表现不乐观ã€?/strong></p><p><strong>1、房地产开发投资完成情å†?/strong></p><p>2019å¹?â€?月份,全国房地产开发投èµ?4589亿元,同比增é•?0.5%,增速比1â€?月份回落0.1个百分点。其中,住宅投资62187亿元,增é•?4.9%,增速回è?.2个百分点。在房地产发展受限的背景下,四季度开发投资增速难见改观ã€?/p><p><strong>2、房地产销售数æ?/strong></p><p>1â€?月份,商品房销售面ç§?01849万平方米,同比下é™?.6%,降幅比1â€?月份收窄0.7个百分点。其中,住宅销售面积增é•?.6%,办公楼销售面积下é™?0.8%,商业营业用房销售面积下é™?3.9%ã€?/p><p>商品房销售额95373亿元,增é•?.7%,增速加å¿?.5个百分点。其中,住宅销售额增长9.9%,办公楼销售额下降11.7%,商业营业用房销售额下降12.8%。不论是投资数据还是销售数据,在调控收紧的影响下,市场再次出现了放缓。全国多项房地产指标增速连续回落,楼市“金九银十”恐难以出现ã€?/p><p><strong>3、制造业发展情况</strong></p><p>8月份,我国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增é•?.4%,比7月份回落0.4个百分点ã€?â€?月份,规模以上工业增加值同比增é•?.6%。其中,黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长10.4%,有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增é•?.5%,通用设备制造业与上年同月持平,专用设备制造业增长3.3%,汽车制造业增长4.3%,铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业增长7.8%,电气机械和器材制造业增长10.0%ã€?/p><p>今年我国制造业发展一直面临着较大压力,可知,è‡?018年底以来中国制造业采购经理指数始终在枯盈水平线附近徘徊ï¼?月份,中国制造业PMIä¸?9.5%,比上月小幅回落0.2个百分点ã€?/p><p><strong>»ÊÐù²ÊƱƽ̨4、钢材出口数æ?/strong></p><p>据海关数据显示,8月份我国钢材出口数据出现下滑,钢材出口总量ä¸?00.6万吨,同比下é™?4.8%,较7月回è?.4个百分点ï¼?-8月为4497.4万吨,与去年同期相比减少4.4%ã€?/p><p><strong>三、从投资的三大组成部分制造业、房地产和基建投资增速看ï¼?/strong><strong>8</strong><strong>月份</strong><strong>房地产投èµ?/strong><strong>增速放缓;</strong><strong>制造业</strong><strong>投资有所回落ï¼?/strong><strong>基建投资</strong><strong>增速回å?/strong><strong>ã€?/strong></p><p>1â€?月份,全国固定资产投资(不含农户ï¼?00628亿元,同比增é•?.5%,增速比1â€?月份回落0.2个百分点,投资增速保持平稳,短板领域投资改善。其中,工业投资同比增长3.3%,增速比1â€?月份回落0.5个百分点;制造业投资增长2.6%,增速回è?.7个百分点;基础设施投资(不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业)同比增长4.2%,增速比1â€?月份加快0.4个百分点ã€?/p><p><strong>观点ï¼?/strong></p><p>综合来看,供应端方面ï¼?月份钢铁产量继续走高再创高位,规模以上工业企业粗钢、生铁、钢材生产增速有反弹,预期中由于钢价下跌钢厂亏损而被迫停产检修的生产减量并不明显。需求端来看,尽管房地产发展受控,但房地产投资增速以及各项销售数据表现仍具韧性;基建投资增速保持平稳,各项专项债举措有效投资支持补短板扩内需;而我国制造业发展仍面临较大压力,PMI指数连续3个月处于枯盈水平线一下,规模以上工业增加值连ç»?月下滑,钢材出口数据表现也不乐观ã€?/p><p>进入九月份,钢市在一片盼涨呼声中全国螺纹钢均价走出了è¿?00元的涨幅,“金九银十”已经如约兑现了一小半。秋季气候条件相对良好,利于工程施工的展开,下游需求端钢材采购明显放量或是支撑此轮钢价小幅回升的主要因素。据我网调研,从8月底è‡?月中旬全国钢材库存出清速度持续加快,贸易商手中的套牢盘得到了一定的释放。与此同时,伴随国庆节日的到来,钢厂新的限产措施已自9月开启,供应压力有下降的预期ã€?/p><p>但值得注意的是,目前全国钢材库存水平仍远高于去年同期,且随着价格的反弹钢厂利润得到恢复,产量也有回升可能。另外国庆节以后,随着天气转冷钢市即将进入新一轮的冬储博弈,价格或有下行风险ã€?/p> 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